Polls have consistently forecast a tight race between El-Sayed and Rogers, showing El-Sayed with a substantial edge over Rogers with Black voters.
But the margin matters. A recent YouGov survey of likely general election voters found El-Sayed winning 84% of the Black vote, with Rogers taking 11% — roughly the same spread that Michigan exit polls showed in 2024, when Harris narrowly lost the state to Trump in the presidential election. A Fox News poll of likely voters in late September measured Rogers’ support among Black voters at 22%.
NBC News visited an early voting location in Detroit on Saturday, ahead
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