Will 70,000 Israelis returning from abroad for Election Day tip the political balance?

An estimated 70,000 Israelis living abroad have returned or are expected to return to Israel ahead of Tuesday’s Knesset elections, potentially influencing the results if the race between the political blocs is close.

This begs the question: Could the Israelis arriving from abroad influence the election results?

In the 2022 elections, approximately 36,000 votes were needed to secure one Knesset seat. Given population growth and an expected increase in voter turnout, estimates suggest that the threshold for a seat could rise to approximately 38,000 to 39,000 votes.

It is difficult to determine which parties most of the Israelis arriving from abroad will support.

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