Transatlantic relations went through major crises in 2026 but did not collapse. The Trump administration confronted European allies over Greenland, and threatened to withdraw forces from NATO commitments in response to disagreements over the war in Iran. Yet Europe largely resisted this pressure without triggering a wider rupture, maintaining cooperation with the US where interests aligned.
Europe’s balancing act may, however, rest on the assumption that the 2026 midterms will change Washington’s approach. An electoral defeat, the thinking goes, will force the administration to adopt a less combative stance. That is unlikely to happen. Political setbacks may constrain the administration, but
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